2019 Canadian federal election
All 338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested
The 2019 Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act but the Act does not preclude the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date. The Liberal Party of Canada will attempt to retain its majority government that it won in the 2015 federal election.
An omnibus bill passed in 2017 assigned responsibility to the Parliamentary Budget Office to review party platforms for future elections, with the 2019 election the first subjected to this review. The Parliamentary Budget Office has a $500,000 budget for costing party platforms for this election, but will only review a party platform at the request of the party that authored it. It will also conduct confidential assessments of independent and party platform proposals preceding the election campaign. The service will also be available to Members of Parliament representing a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons, such as Elizabeth May.
- 1 Background
- 2 Electoral reform
- 3 Election campaign
- 4 Parties and standings
- 5 Incumbents not running for reelection
- 6 Timeline
- 7 Target seats
- 8 Opinion polls
- 9 Candidates
- 10 Election spending
- 11 See also
- 12 Notes
- 13 References
- 14 External links
The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status (12). Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet. After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018, and was succeeded by Yves-François Blanchet on January 17, 2019.
Due to Tom Mulcair gaining only 48% of the vote at the NDP's April 2016 leadership review, the party held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as his successor.
In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post." As the Liberals, New Democrats, Bloc, and Greens were all in favour of reform, it was seen as possible that a different voting system could be in place by the next federal election.
A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. The majority of the all-party committee recommended "that the government should, as it develops a new electoral system ... [seek to] minimize the level of distortion between the popular will of the electorate and the resultant seat allocations in Parliament."
Despite the mandate of the committee being to "identify and conduct a study of viable alternate voting systems" rather than to recommend a specific alternative system, the Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef was critical of the committee's recommendation saying "I have to admit I'm a little disappointed, because what we had hoped the committee would provide us with would be a specific alternative system to first past the post." Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose said Monsef's comments were "a disgrace" and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said "[t]he minister chose to insult the committee and chose to mislead Canadians."
In February 2017, Prime Minister Trudeau dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, saying that, "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. ... Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate." In response to questions from the public in Iqaluit, Trudeau said "I turned my back on that promise" and that "this was my choice to make, and I chose to make it with full consequence of the cost that is possibly going to come [from] it".
Two debates will be organized and held by the newly created Leaders' Debates Commission. The English language debate is scheduled to take place on October 7 and the French on October 10. Both debates are to take place at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Quebec.
The debates will be produced by the newly formed Canadian Debate Production Partnership, which is made up of the following broadcasters and newspapers: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, The Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'Actualité.
The English debate will be moderated by Rosemary Barton, Susan Delacourt, Dawna Friesen, Lisa LaFlamme and Althia Raj, each responsible for a portion of the debate. The French moderator is Patrice Roy, who will be assisted by several journalists from prominent Quebec newspapers.
On August 12, 2019, the Commissioner extended invitations for Justin Trudeau, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet to attend. He also sent a letter to Maxime Bernier indicating that he did not qualify for the debates at this time, and asking for additional information from the People's Party so that a final decision could be reached by September 16. Bernier criticized the decision saying that it would not be a "real debate" without him.
- Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
- Nominate candidates to run in at least 90% of all ridings; and
- Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election or be considered by the commissioner to have a legitimate chance to win seats in the current election, based on public opinion polls.
In November 2018, Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould said that Maxime Bernier would qualify for the debates as leader of the People's Party of Canada if the party nominated candidates in 90% of ridings.
On July 17, protesters gathered in cities across Canada calling for a leaders' debate to be held on the topic of climate change. The protests were directed at CBC News after organizers were told that broadcasters not the commission would determine the questions and topics of the debates. In response to the protests, the CBC released a statement saying that the commission and the editorial group at the broadcaster ultimately selected to host the debates would be responsible for making such determinations. On August 8, 2019, organizers delivered a petition with 48,000 signatures to the CBC.
Parties and standings
184 / 338
177 / 338
99 / 338
95 / 338
|New Democratic||Social democracy
44 / 338
40 / 338
|Bloc Québécois||Quebec sovereigntism
10 / 338
10 / 338
1 / 338
2 / 338
1 / 338
|Co-operative Commonwealth[a]||Social democracy||N/A||N/A|
1 / 338
8 / 338
4 / 338
Incumbents not running for reelection
The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:
- Frank Baylis (Pierrefonds—Dollard)
- Bill Casey (Cumberland—Colchester)
- Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton—Canso)
- Mark Eyking (Sydney—Victoria)
- Colin Fraser (West Nova)
- Pam Goldsmith-Jones (West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country)
- T. J. Harvey (Tobique—Mactaquac)
- Andrew Leslie (Orléans)
- John Oliver (Oakville)
- Denis Paradis (Brome—Missisquoi)
- Kyle Peterson (Newmarket—Aurora)
- Don Rusnak (Thunder Bay—Rainy River)
- Geng Tan (Don Valley North)
- Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)
- David Anderson (Cypress Hills—Grasslands)
- Jim Eglinski (Yellowhead)
- Kellie Leitch (Simcoe—Grey)
- Guy Lauzon (Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry)
- Larry Miller (Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound)
- Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls)
- Alex Nuttall (Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte)
- Bev Shipley (Lambton—Kent—Middlesex)
- Robert Sopuck (Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa)
- Kevin Sorenson (Battle River—Crowfoot)
- David Tilson (Dufferin—Caledon)
- Dave Van Kesteren (Chatham-Kent—Leamington)
- Mark Warawa (Langley—Aldergrove) (Warawa has since died)
New Democratic Party
- Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (Hochelaga)
- David Christopherson (Hamilton Centre)
- Nathan Cullen (Skeena—Bulkley Valley)
- Fin Donnelly (Port Moody—Coquitlam)
- Linda Duncan (Edmonton Strathcona)
- Hélène Laverdière (Laurier—Sainte-Marie)
- Irene Mathyssen (London—Fanshawe)
- Anne Minh-Thu Quach (Salaberry—Suroît)
- Christine Moore (Abitibi—Témiscamingue)
- Murray Rankin (Victoria)
- Romeo Saganash (Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou)
Co-operative Commonwealth Federation[b]
- Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Whitby) (elected as Liberal)
- Tony Clement (Parry Sound—Muskoka) (elected as Conservative)
- Hunter Tootoo (Nunavut) (elected as Liberal)
- to seek treatment for addiction
- in order to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta
- becoming Ambassador to the European Union
- becoming Ambassador to China
- amid allegations of sexual harassment
- former Minister of Public Services and Procurement
- following her entrance into the 2018 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election
- over harassment allegations
- to run for Mayor of Vancouver
- as a result of a sexting scandal
- to seek treatment for a gambling addiction
- to run for the provincial district of Nanaimo
- amid the SNC-Lavalin affair
- dies due to cancer, while serving as a Conservative MP
- October 19, 2015: The Liberal Party of Canada wins a majority government in the 42nd Canadian federal election. Outgoing Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
- October 22, 2015: Gilles Duceppe resigns as leader of the Bloc Québécois and is replaced on an interim-basis by Rivière-du-Nord MP Rhéal Fortin.
- November 4, 2015: Justin Trudeau is sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada.
- November 5, 2015: Sturgeon River—Parkland MP and former cabinet minister Rona Ambrose is elected interim Conservative leader.
- December 3, 2015: The 42nd Parliament is convened.
- March 23, 2016: Jim Hillyer, Conservative MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner dies of a heart attack.
- April 10, 2016: 52% of delegates at the 2016 NDP convention voted in support of a leadership review motion to hold a leadership election within 24 months. Party leader Tom Mulcair announces he will stay on as leader until his replacement is chosen.
- August 15, 2016: Mauril Belanger, Liberal MP for Ottawa—Vanier dies of ALS.
- August 26, 2016: Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Conservative MP for Calgary Heritage resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- September 9, 2016: Strength in Democracy, a party which had three incumbent MPs among its 17 candidates in the last election is deregistered by Elections Canada for failure to file papers maintaining its party status.
- September 23, 2016: Jason Kenney, Conservative MP for Calgary Midnapore resigns his seat to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta.
- February 1, 2017: John McCallum, Liberal MP for Markham—Thornhill resigns his seat to become Ambassador to China.
- February 6, 2017: Stéphane Dion, Liberal MP for Saint-Laurent resigns his seat to become Ambassador to Germany and Special Envoy of Canada to the European Union and Europe.
- March 18, 2017: Martine Ouellet is acclaimed as leader of the Bloc Québécois.
- May 27, 2017: Andrew Scheer is elected leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
- July 4, 2017: Rona Ambrose, Conservative MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland resigns her seat in the House of Commons.
- August 31, 2017: Calgary Skyview MP Darshan Kang resigns from the Liberal caucus amid sexual harassment allegations.
- September 14, 2017: Arnold Chan, Liberal MP for Scarborough—Agincourt dies of cancer.
- October 1, 2017: Jagmeet Singh is elected leader of the New Democratic Party.
- December 1, 2017: Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- February 28, 2018: Citing conflict with party leader Martine Ouellet, seven Bloc Québécois MPs resign from the party caucus, establishing the Groupe parlementaire québécois for parliamentary purposes, while remaining independent of any electoral political party. Only Xavier Barsalou-Duval (Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères), Mario Beaulieu (La Pointe-de-l'Île), and Marilène Gill (Manicouagan) remain in the Bloc Québécois caucus.
- May 5, 2018: Gord Brown, Conservative MP for Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes dies of a heart attack.
- May 9, 2018: Members of the Groupe parlementaire québécois announce they will be forming a new political party, Québec debout.
- June 4, 2018: After losing a leadership review, Martine Ouellet announces she will step down as leader of the Bloc Québécois effective June 11, 2018.
- June 6, 2018: Michel Boudrias and Simon Marcil, Québec debout MPs for Terrebonne and Mirabel, respectively, announce they will return to the Bloc Québécois caucus as a result of Martine Ouellet's resignation as party leader. Citing the Bloc's vote the previous weekend to focus exclusively on Quebec sovereignty, Québec debout spokesman Rhéal Fortin announces that he and the party's other four MPs will not rejoin the Bloc Québécois.
- August 3, 2018: Tom Mulcair, NDP MP for Outremont resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- August 23, 2018: Beauce MP Maxime Bernier resigns from the Conservative caucus in disagreement with the leadership of Andrew Scheer. Bernier announces his intention to form a new federal party.
- September 14, 2018:
- September 17, 2018:
- All five Québec debout MPs — Rhéal Fortin (Rivière-du-Nord), Monique Pauzé (Repentigny), Louis Plamondon (Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel), Gabriel Ste-Marie (Joliette), and Luc Thériault (Montcalm) — announce they will rejoin the Bloc Québécois, officially dissolving Quebec debout.
- Leona Alleslev, Liberal MP for Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, crosses the floor to join the Conservatives, citing concerns for the Liberal's handling of the economy, foreign and security policies, and international trade.
- September 30, 2018: Peter Van Loan, Conservative MP for York—Simcoe resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- November 7, 2018: Parry Sound—Muskoka MP Tony Clement resigns from the Conservative caucus, at the request of leader Andrew Scheer, due to a sexting scandal.
- November 30, 2018: Brampton East MP Raj Grewal resigns from the Liberal caucus to enter treatment due to a gambling addiction.
- January 2, 2019: Sheila Malcolmson, NDP MP for Nanaimo—Ladysmith resigns her seat to seek election in the British Columbia provincial riding of Nanaimo.
- January 17, 2019: As no other candidate had entered the race by the January 15 nomination deadline, Yves-François Blanchet is acclaimed leader of the Bloc Québécois.
- January 29, 2019: Nicola Di Iorio, Liberal MP for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- February 10, 2019: Scott Brison, Liberal MP for Kings—Hants resigns his seat in the House of Commons.
- February 25, 2019: By-elections are held in Outremont, York—Simcoe and Burnaby South, electing Liberal Rachel Bendayan, Conservative Scot Davidson, and New Democrat Jagmeet Singh, respectively.
- March 20, 2019: Whitby MP Celina Caesar-Chavannes resigns from the Liberal caucus.
- April 2, 2019: Markham—Stouffville MP Jane Philpott and Vancouver Granville MP Jody Wilson-Raybould are removed from the Liberal caucus.
- May 6, 2019: A by-election is held in Nanaimo—Ladysmith, electing Green candidate Paul Manly.
- June 20, 2019: Mark Warawa, Conservative MP for Langley—Aldergrove dies of cancer.
- August 2, 2019: Deepak Obhrai, Conservative MP for Calgary Forest Lawn dies from liver cancer. 
- August 16, 2019: Pierre Nantel is removed from the New Democratic Party caucus and de-selected as the NDP candidate for Longueuil—Saint-Hubert after reports surfaced of ongoing discussions regarding Nantel joining the Green Party of Canada. He announces that he is now an independent MP.
- August 19, 2019: Pierre Nantel repeats that he will remain an independent MP until the end of his term in the current Parliament and announces that he will be a candidate for the Green Party of Canada in the election for the next Parliament.
The following is a list of ridings which had been lost by the indicated party in the 2015 election by less than 15%. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 86 seats in which they lost by under 15%, ranked by the percent margin. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost. Based on a uniform swing, the Conservatives would need to win 71 seats to win a majority, making Chicoutimi—Le Fjord the tipping point riding. Highlighted seats indicate ridings whose incumbents represent a party different from than the one elected in 2015.
- ^ The Green Party won this seat in a by-election on May 9, 2019.
- ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election of February 25, 2019.
- ^ The Conservative Party won this seat in a by-election on June 18, 2018.
- ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on December 11, 2017.
- ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on October 23, 2017.
Before the campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.
Reimbursements for political parties and candidates
Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.
Registered third parties
A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more. There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.
Elections Canada climate change advertising warning
On August 19, 2019, Environmental Defence Canada's Tim Gray told media that during a summer 2019 Elections Canada training session, some environmental charities were warned that any third party that promotes information about carbon dioxide as a pollutant or climate change as an emergency during the election period could be deemed to be engaging in partisan activity. Gray said that this would mean that registered charities with a charitable tax status would be required to register as a third party for the election if they engaged in any kind of campaign deemed partisan that cost at least $500, which would include advertising and surveys. He said this "onerous requirement...could jeopardize a group's charitable tax status." Only one of the six party leaders—Maxime Bernier—who does not accept the conclusions of the current UNCCR reports saying human caused climate change is an urgent threat to the globe. Bernier believes that climate change is a "natural cycle of the Earth and not an emergency." A spokesperson for Elections Canada confirmed that "such a recommendation would be something we would give." In this electoral campaign therefore, "any third party that discusses the dangers of climate change and carbon dioxide could be considered to be indirectly advocating against Bernier and the People's Party. Furthermore, even activities that do not mention a candidate or party by name, could be considered to be partisan. The following day, Elections Canada released a public statement to clarify that the prohibition applied only to advertising, not speech generally.
- By-elections to the 42nd Canadian Parliament
- 2017 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
- 2017 New Democratic Party leadership election
- 2017 Bloc Québécois leadership election
- 2019 Bloc Québécois leadership election
- Erin Weir designated himself as a member of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation following his expulsion from the NDP caucus. The CCF is not a registered party and Weir's designation exists only in a parliamentary, not electoral, sense. See: Co-operative Commonwealth Federation#2018
- The House of Commons allows members to choose their own affiliation; Weir chose to revive the CCF name when he was ejected from the NDP caucus.
- Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats)
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NDP MPs Romeo Saganash (Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, Que.) and Kennedy Stewart (Burnaby South, B.C.) have already announced they aren't running for re-election.
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