2019 Canadian federal election

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2019 Canadian federal election

← 2015 On or before October 21, 2019 (On or before October 21, 2019) Next →

All 338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Justin Trudeau in Lima, Peru - 2018 (41507133581) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Andrew Scheer in June 2017.jpg Jagmeet Singh - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped portrait).jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 14, 2013 May 27, 2017 October 1, 2017
Leader's seat Papineau Regina—Qu'Appelle Burnaby South
Last election 184 seats, 39.47% 99 seats, 31.89% 44 seats, 19.71%
Current seats 177 95 40
Seats needed Steady Increase75 Increase130

  Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg Elizabeth May in July 2014.jpg Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party Bloc Québécois Green People's
Leader since January 17, 2019 August 27, 2006 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Running in Beloeil—Chambly Saanich—Gulf Islands Beauce
Last election 10 seats, 4.66% 1 seat, 3.45% Pre-creation
Current seats 10 2 1
Seats needed Increase160[1] Increase167 Increase169

Canada Election 2019 Results Map.svg
Map showing boundaries of the 338 federal ridings to be contested

Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 2019 Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act but the Act does not preclude the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date.[2] The Liberal Party of Canada will attempt to retain its majority government that it won in the 2015 federal election.

An omnibus bill passed in 2017 assigned responsibility to the Parliamentary Budget Office to review party platforms for future elections, with the 2019 election the first subjected to this review.[3] The Parliamentary Budget Office has a $500,000 budget for costing party platforms for this election, but will only review a party platform at the request of the party that authored it.[3] It will also conduct confidential assessments of independent and party platform proposals preceding the election campaign.[3] The service will also be available to Members of Parliament representing a party that does not have official party status in the House of Commons, such as Elizabeth May.[3]

Background[edit]

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status (12). Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election, and was succeeded by Parti Québécois MNA Martine Ouellet.[4] After losing a leadership review, Ouellet announced she would step down as Bloc leader on June 11, 2018,[5] and was succeeded by Yves-François Blanchet on January 17, 2019.[6]

Due to Tom Mulcair gaining only 48% of the vote at the NDP's April 2016 leadership review, the party held a leadership election on October 1, 2017, electing Ontario MPP and the former Deputy Leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh as his successor.[7][8]

Electoral reform[edit]

In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."[9][10] As the Liberals,[11] New Democrats, Bloc, and Greens were all in favour of reform, it was seen as possible that a different voting system could be in place by the next federal election.[12]

A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. The majority of the all-party committee recommended "that the government should, as it develops a new electoral system ... [seek to] minimize the level of distortion between the popular will of the electorate and the resultant seat allocations in Parliament."[13][14]

Despite the mandate of the committee being to "identify and conduct a study of viable alternate voting systems" rather than to recommend a specific alternative system,[15] the Minister of Democratic Institutions Maryam Monsef was critical of the committee's recommendation saying "I have to admit I'm a little disappointed, because what we had hoped the committee would provide us with would be a specific alternative system to first past the post."[13] Interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose said Monsef's comments were "a disgrace" and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said "[t]he minister chose to insult the committee and chose to mislead Canadians."[13]

In February 2017, Prime Minister Trudeau dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould, saying that, "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. ... Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate."[16] In response to questions from the public in Iqaluit, Trudeau said "I turned my back on that promise" and that "this was my choice to make, and I chose to make it with full consequence of the cost that is possibly going to come [from] it".[17]

Election campaign[edit]

Leaders' debates[edit]

Two debates will be organized and held by the newly created Leaders' Debates Commission.[18] The English language debate is scheduled to take place on October 7 and the French on October 10.[19][20] Both debates are to take place at the Canadian Museum of History in Gatineau, Quebec.[19][21]

The debates will be produced by the newly formed Canadian Debate Production Partnership, which is made up of the following broadcasters and newspapers: CBC News/Radio-Canada, Global News, CTV News, The Toronto Star, HuffPost Canada/HuffPost Quebec, La Presse, Le Devoir, and L'Actualité.[20][21]

The English debate will be moderated by Rosemary Barton, Susan Delacourt, Dawna Friesen, Lisa LaFlamme and Althia Raj, each responsible for a portion of the debate.[19] The French moderator is Patrice Roy, who will be assisted by several journalists from prominent Quebec newspapers.[19]

On August 12, 2019, the Commissioner extended invitations for Justin Trudeau, Andrew Scheer, Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May and Yves-François Blanchet to attend. He also sent a letter to Maxime Bernier indicating that he did not qualify for the debates at this time, and asking for additional information from the People's Party so that a final decision could be reached by September 16.[22] Bernier criticized the decision saying that it would not be a "real debate" without him.[23]

The government established rules in 2018 to determine which party leaders are invited to the official debates.[24][25] To be invited a party must satisfy two of the following:

  1. Have at least one member elected under the party's banner;
  2. Nominate candidates to run in at least 90% of all ridings; and
  3. Have captured at least 4% of the votes in the previous election or be considered by the commissioner to have a legitimate chance to win seats in the current election, based on public opinion polls.[24][25]

In November 2018, Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould said that Maxime Bernier would qualify for the debates as leader of the People's Party of Canada if the party nominated candidates in 90% of ridings.[26][20]

On July 17, protesters gathered in cities across Canada calling for a leaders' debate to be held on the topic of climate change. The protests were directed at CBC News after organizers were told that broadcasters not the commission would determine the questions and topics of the debates. In response to the protests, the CBC released a statement saying that the commission and the editorial group at the broadcaster ultimately selected to host the debates would be responsible for making such determinations.[27][28][29][30] On August 8, 2019, organizers delivered a petition with 48,000 signatures to the CBC.[31]

Munk Debates is also calling for a leaders debate on foreign policy. Andrew Scheer and Elizabeth May have agreed to attend.[32][33] Bernier has not been invited.[34][35]

Parties and standings[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2015 federal election.

Name Ideology Leader 2015 result Current
seats
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Justin Trudeau 39.47%
184 / 338
177 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Andrew Scheer 31.89%
99 / 338
95 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Jagmeet Singh 19.71%
44 / 338
40 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec sovereigntism
Social democracy
Yves-François Blanchet 4.66%
10 / 338
10 / 338
Green Green politics
Green liberalism
Elizabeth May 3.45%
1 / 338
2 / 338
People's Conservatism
Libertarianism
Classical liberalism
Populism
Maxime Bernier N/A
1 / 338
Co-operative Commonwealth[a] Social democracy N/A N/A
1 / 338
Independents N/A N/A
8 / 338
Vacant seats N/A N/A
4 / 338

Incumbents not running for reelection[edit]

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

Liberal Party

Conservative Party

New Democratic Party

Co-operative Commonwealth Federation[b]

Independent

Timeline[edit]

Changes in seats held (2015–2019)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner March 23, 2016[77] Jim Hillyer  Conservative Death in office October 24, 2016[78] Glen Motz  Conservative
Nunavut May 31, 2016[79] Hunter Tootoo  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1]  Independent
Ottawa—Vanier August 16, 2016[80] Mauril Bélanger  Liberal Death in office April 3, 2017 Mona Fortier  Liberal
Calgary Heritage August 26, 2016[81] Stephen Harper  Conservative Resignation April 3, 2017 Bob Benzen  Conservative
Calgary Midnapore September 23, 2016[82] Jason Kenney  Conservative Resignation[a 2] April 3, 2017 Stephanie Kusie  Conservative
Saint-Laurent January 31, 2017[83] Stéphane Dion  Liberal Resignation[a 3] April 3, 2017 Emmanuella Lambropoulos  Liberal
Markham—Thornhill January 31, 2017 John McCallum  Liberal Resignation[a 4] April 3, 2017 Mary Ng  Liberal
Sturgeon River—Parkland July 4, 2017[84] Rona Ambrose  Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017 Dane Lloyd  Conservative
Lac-Saint-Jean August 9, 2017[85] Denis Lebel  Conservative Resignation October 23, 2017[86] Richard Hébert  Liberal
Calgary Skyview August 31, 2017[87] Darshan Kang  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 5]  Independent
Scarborough—Agincourt September 14, 2017[88] Arnold Chan  Liberal Death in office December 11, 2017[89] Jean Yip  Liberal
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity September 30, 2017[90] Judy Foote  Liberal Resignation[a 6] December 11, 2017 Churence Rogers  Liberal
South Surrey—White Rock September 30, 2017[91] Dianne Watts  Conservative Resignation[a 7] December 11, 2017 Gordon Hogg  Liberal
Battlefords—Lloydminster October 2, 2017[92] Gerry Ritz  Conservative Resignation December 11, 2017 Rosemarie Falk  Conservative
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord December 1, 2017[93] Denis Lemieux  Liberal Resignation June 18, 2018[94] Richard Martel  Conservative
Terrebonne February 28, 2018[95][96] Michel Boudrias  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018[97]  Bloc Québécois
Rivière-du-Nord February 28, 2018 Rhéal Fortin  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[98]  Bloc Québécois
Mirabel February 28, 2018 Simon Marcil  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
June 6, 2018  Bloc Québécois
Repentigny February 28, 2018 Monique Pauzé  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[98]  Bloc Québécois
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel February 28, 2018 Louis Plamondon  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[98]  Bloc Québécois
Joliette February 28, 2018 Gabriel Ste-Marie  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[98]  Bloc Québécois
Montcalm February 28, 2018 Luc Thériault  Bloc Québécois Resigned from caucus  Groupe parl qué
September 17, 2018[98]  Bloc Québécois
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes May 2, 2018[99] Gord Brown  Conservative Death in office December 3, 2018[100] Michael Barrett  Conservative
Regina—Lewvan May 3, 2018[101] Erin Weir  New Democratic Removed from caucus[a 8] May 11, 2018[102]  CCF
Outremont August 3, 2018[103] Tom Mulcair  New Democratic Resignation February 25, 2019[104] Rachel Bendayan  Liberal
Beauce August 23, 2018[105] Maxime Bernier  Conservative Resigned from caucus September 14, 2018  People's
Burnaby South September 14, 2018[106] Kennedy Stewart  New Democratic Resignation[a 9] February 25, 2019[104] Jagmeet Singh  New Democratic
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill September 17, 2018[107] Leona Alleslev  Liberal Changed affiliation  Conservative
York—Simcoe September 30, 2018[108] Peter Van Loan  Conservative Resignation February 25, 2019[104] Scot Davidson  Conservative
Parry Sound—Muskoka November 7, 2018[109] Tony Clement  Conservative Resigned from caucus[a 10]  Independent
Brampton East November 30, 2018[110] Raj Grewal  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 11]  Independent
Nanaimo—Ladysmith January 2, 2019[111] Sheila Malcolmson  New Democratic Resigned[a 12] May 6, 2019[112] Paul Manly  Green
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel January 29, 2019[113] Nicola Di Iorio  Liberal Resignation
Kings—Hants February 10, 2019[114] Scott Brison  Liberal Resignation
Whitby March 20, 2019[115] Celina Caesar-Chavannes  Liberal Resigned from caucus  Independent
Markham—Stouffville April 2, 2019[116] Jane Philpott  Liberal Removed from caucus[a 13]  Independent
Vancouver Granville April 2, 2019[116] Jody Wilson-Raybould  Liberal Removed from caucus[a 13]  Independent
Langley—Aldergrove June 20, 2019 Mark Warawa  Conservative Death in office[a 14]
Calgary Forest Lawn August 2, 2019 Deepak Obhrai  Conservative Death in office[a 14]
  1. ^ to seek treatment for addiction
  2. ^ in order to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta
  3. ^ becoming Ambassador to the European Union
  4. ^ becoming Ambassador to China
  5. ^ amid allegations of sexual harassment
  6. ^ former Minister of Public Services and Procurement
  7. ^ following her entrance into the 2018 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election
  8. ^ over harassment allegations
  9. ^ to run for Mayor of Vancouver
  10. ^ as a result of a sexting scandal
  11. ^ to seek treatment for a gambling addiction
  12. ^ to run for the provincial district of Nanaimo
  13. ^ a b amid the SNC-Lavalin affair
  14. ^ a b dies due to cancer, while serving as a Conservative MP

2015[edit]

2016[edit]

2017[edit]

2018[edit]

2019[edit]

Target seats[edit]

The following is a list of ridings which had been lost by the indicated party in the 2015 election by less than 15%. For instance, under the Liberal column are the 86 seats in which they lost by under 15%, ranked by the percent margin. Listed is the name of the riding, followed by the party which was victorious (in parentheses) and the margin, in terms of percentage of the vote, by which the party lost. Based on a uniform swing, the Conservatives would need to win 71 seats to win a majority, making Chicoutimi—Le Fjord the tipping point riding. Highlighted seats indicate ridings whose incumbents represent a party different from than the one elected in 2015.

Liberal Conservative
  1. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (Cons) 0.17%
  2. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (NDP) 0.27%
  3. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères (BQ) 0.36%
  4. Kitchener—Conestoga (Cons) 0.53%
  5. Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 0.56%
  6. Jonquière (NDP) 0.71%
  7. Hochelaga (NDP) 0.96%
  8. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 1.10%
  9. Burnaby South (NDP) 1.19%
  10. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert (NDP) 1.21%
  11. Salaberry—Suroît (NDP) 1.25%
  12. Trois-Rivières (NDP) 1.60%
  13. Beloeil—Chambly (NDP) 1.73%
  14. Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola (Cons) 2.35%
  15. Calgary Confederation (Cons) 2.38%
  16. Hamilton Mountain (NDP) 2.40%
  17. South Surrey—White Rock (Cons)4 2.54%
  18. Richmond Centre (Cons) 2.85%
  19. Churchill—Keewatinook Aski (NDP) 3.04%
  20. Carleton (Cons) 3.12%
  21. Simcoe North (Cons) 3.71%
  22. Drummond (NDP) 3.92%
  23. Flamborough—Glanbrook (Cons) 4.34%
  24. Parry Sound—Muskoka (Cons) 4.42%
  25. Chatham-Kent—Leamington (Cons) 4.48%
  26. Elmwood—Transcona (NDP) 4.63%
  27. Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Cons) 4.84%
  28. Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (NDP) 4.88%
  29. Milton (Cons) 4.94%
  30. La Pointe-de-l'Île (BQ) 5.01%
  31. Terrebonne (BQ) 5.02%
  32. Joliette (BQ) 5.08%
  33. Cariboo—Prince George (Cons) 5.15%
  34. Port Moody—Coquitlam (NDP) 5.15%
  35. Beauport—Limoilou (Cons) 5.16%
  36. Huron—Bruce (Cons) 5.23%
  37. Perth—Wellington (Cons) 5.35%
  38. Mirabel (BQ) 5.38%
  39. Rivière-du-Nord (BQ) 5.69%
  40. Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing (NDP) 5.81%
  41. Markham—Unionville (Cons) 6.04%
  42. London—Fanshawe (NDP) 6.34%
  43. Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Cons) 6.63%
  44. Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes (Cons) 6.82%
  45. Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 6.90%
  46. Dufferin—Caledon (Cons) 7.17%
  47. Mégantic—L'Érable (Cons) 7.28%
  48. Repentigny (BQ) 7.39%
  49. Haldimand—Norfolk (Cons) 7.55%
  50. Sherbrooke (NDP) 7.57%
  51. Niagara Falls (Cons) 7.60%
  52. Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke (NDP) 7.66%
  53. Regina—Lewvan (NDP) 7.73%
  54. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound (Cons) 7.84%
  55. Simcoe—Grey (Cons) 8.00%
  56. Timmins—James Bay (NDP) 8.14%
  57. Chilliwack—Hope (Cons) 8.55%
  58. Langley—Aldergrove (Cons) 9.08%
  59. South Okanagan—West Kootenay (NDP) 9.15%
  60. Montcalm (BQ) 9.29%
  61. Barrie—Innisfil (Cons) 9.30%
  62. North Okanagan—Shuswap (Cons) 9.35%
  63. Durham (Cons) 9.38%
  64. Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP)[1] 9.68%
  65. Brantford—Brant (Cons) 10.19%
  66. Outremont (NDP)2 10.65%
  67. Oshawa (Cons) 10.83%
  68. Sarnia—Lambton (Cons) 11.55%
  69. Abitibi—Témiscamingue (NDP) 11.87%
  70. Manicouagan (BQ) 11.88%
  71. Calgary Forest Lawn (Cons) 12.02%
  72. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (NDP) 12.17%
  73. Hamilton Centre (NDP) 12.17%
  74. York—Simcoe (Cons) 12.48%
  75. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry (Cons) 12.51%
  76. Brandon—Souris (Cons) 12.96%
  77. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (Cons) 13.08%
  78. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke (Cons) 13.17%
  79. Oxford (Cons) 13.48%
  80. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston (Cons) 14.11%
  81. Wellington—Halton Hills (Cons) 14.42%
  82. Edmonton West (Cons) 14.44%
  83. New Westminster—Burnaby (NDP) 14.49%
  84. Laurier—Sainte-Marie (NDP) 14.61%
  85. North Island—Powell River (NDP) 14.74%
  86. Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons)5 14.83%
  1. Elmwood—Transcona (NDP) 0.14%
  2. Edmonton Mill Woods (Liberal) 0.18%
  3. Regina—Lewvan (NDP) 0.27%
  4. Kootenay—Columbia (NDP) 0.45%
  5. Hastings—Lennox and Addington (Liberal) 0.45%
  6. Calgary Centre (Liberal) 1.22%
  7. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill (Liberal) 2.15%
  8. Edmonton Centre (Liberal) 2.24%
  9. Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon (Liberal) 2.32%
  10. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge (Liberal) 2.49%
  11. Newmarket—Aurora (Liberal) 2.57%
  12. Kildonan—St. Paul (Liberal) 2.82%
  13. Whitby (Liberal) 2.86%
  14. York Centre (Liberal) 2.89%
  15. Northumberland—Peterborough South (Liberal) 2.95%
  16. King—Vaughan (Liberal) 3.18%
  17. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (Liberal) 3.28%
  18. Oakville North—Burlington (Liberal) 3.41%
  19. Burlington (Liberal) 3.50%
  20. Richmond Hill (Liberal) 3.58%
  21. Fundy Royal (Liberal) 3.79%
  22. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River (NDP) 4.01%
  23. Cambridge (Liberal) 4.52%
  24. Vaughan—Woodbridge (Liberal) 4.85%
  25. New Brunswick Southwest (Liberal) 5.36%
  26. Kitchener South—Hespeler (Liberal) 5.59%
  27. St. Catharines (Liberal) 5.61%
  28. Essex (NDP) 5.73%
  29. Niagara Centre (Liberal) 5.97%
  30. Calgary Skyview(Liberal) 6.13%
  31. Eglinton—Lawrence (Liberal) 6.25%
  32. Kelowna—Lake Country (Liberal) 6.41%
  33. Markham—Stouffville (Liberal) 6.44%
  34. Mississauga—Lakeshore (Liberal) 6.49%
  35. Port Moody—Coquitlam (NDP) 6.58%
  36. Steveston—Richmond East (Liberal) 6.61%
  37. Saskatoon West (NDP) 6.68%
  38. Oakville (Liberal) 6.89%
  39. Kenora (Liberal) 7.04%
  40. Québec (Liberal) 7.11%
  41. South Okanagan—West Kootenay (NDP) 7.44%
  42. Mississauga—Streetsville (Liberal) 7.45%
  43. Louis-Hébert (Liberal) 7.66%
  44. Burnaby South (NDP) 7.96%
  45. Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal) 8.25%
  46. Peterborough—Kawartha (Liberal) 8.75%
  47. Tobique—Mactaquac (Liberal) 9.59%
  48. Courtenay—Alberni (NDP) 9.84%
  49. Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP)[2] 9.85%
  50. Hamilton Mountain (NDP) 10.19%
  51. Mississauga—Erin Mills (Liberal) 10.48%
  52. London West (Liberal) 10.49%
  53. London—Fanshawe (NDP) 10.58%
  54. Cloverdale—Langley City (Liberal) 10.75%
  55. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 11.92%
  56. Kanata—Carleton (Liberal) 12.08%
  57. Pickering—Uxbridge (Liberal) 12.11%
  58. Jonquière (NDP) 12.30%
  59. Mount Royal (Liberal) 12.46%
  60. Edmonton Strathcona (NDP) 12.68%
  61. Drummond (NDP) 12.72%
  62. Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley (Liberal) 12.98%
  63. Miramichi—Grand Lake (Liberal) 13.00%
  64. Cowichan—Malahat—Langford (NDP) 13.13%
  65. Trois-Rivières (NDP) 13.20%
  66. Don Valley North (Liberal) 13.60%
  67. Sault Ste. Marie (Liberal) 13.63%
  68. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Liberal) 13.73%
  69. Scarborough—Agincourt (Liberal) 13.92%
  70. North Island—Powell River (NDP) 14.04%
  71. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal)3 14.49%
  72. Vancouver South (Liberal) 14.93%
  73. Brampton Centre (Liberal) 14.97%
New Democratic Bloc Québécois
  1. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal)3 1.37%
  2. Mirabel (BQ) 1.41%
  3. St. John's East (Liberal) 1.44%
  4. Kenora (Liberal) 1.62%
  5. Parkdale—High Park (Liberal) 1.80%
  6. Québec (Liberal) 1.86%
  7. Rivière-du-Nord (BQ) 1.91%
  8. Toronto—Danforth (Liberal) 2.17%
  9. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Liberal) 2.89%
  10. Davenport (Liberal) 2.90%
  11. Saint-Jean (Liberal) 4.09%
  12. Ottawa Centre (Liberal) 4.12%
  13. Niagara Centre (Liberal) 4.19%
  14. Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge (Liberal) 4.26%
  15. Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères (BQ) 4.30%
  16. Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo (Cons) 4.48%
  17. Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 4.79%
  18. Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons)5 4.81%
  19. Nickel Belt (Liberal) 5.02%
  20. Beauport—Limoilou (Cons) 5.10%
  21. Laurentides—Labelle (Liberal) 5.75%
  22. Edmonton Griesbach (Cons) 5.94%
  23. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine (Liberal) 6.21%
  24. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek (Liberal) 6.28%
  25. Oshawa (Cons) 6.30%
  26. Burnaby North—Seymour (Liberal) 6.48%
  27. La Pointe-de-l'Île (BQ) 6.82%
  28. Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 7.32%
  29. Terrebonne (BQ) 7.40%
  30. Thérèse-De Blainville (Liberal) 7.57%
  31. Joliette (BQ) 7.61%
  32. Sarnia—Lambton (Cons) 7.68%
  33. Montarville (Liberal) 7.86%
  34. Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam (Liberal) 8.03%
  35. Compton—Stanstead (Liberal) 9.47%
  36. Saskatoon—University (Cons) 10.00%
  37. Cariboo—Prince George (Cons) 10.81%
  38. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (Liberal) 11.28%
  39. Acadie—Bathurst (Liberal) 11.31%
  40. Saskatoon—Grasswood (Cons) 11.41%
  41. Repentigny (BQ) 11.42%
  42. Edmonton Centre (Liberal) 12.74%
  43. Montcalm (BQ) 13.16%
  44. Mégantic—L'Érable (Cons) 13.46%
  45. Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook (Liberal) 13.56%
  46. La Prairie (Liberal) 13.58%
  47. North Okanagan—Shuswap (Cons) 13.70%
  48. Louis-Hébert (Liberal) 14.04%
  49. Thunder Bay—Rainy River (Liberal) 14.36%
  50. Regina—Qu'Appelle (Cons) 14.49%
  51. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun (Liberal) 14.95%
  52. Surrey Centre (Liberal) 14.99%
  1. Salaberry—Suroît (NDP) 2.07%
  2. Laurentides—Labelle (Liberal) 2.35%
  3. Hochelaga (NDP) 3.17%
  4. Beloeil—Chambly (NDP) 3.39%
  5. Longueuil—Saint-Hubert (NDP) 3.95%
  6. Montarville (Liberal) 4.12%
  7. Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (NDP) 4.37%
  8. Thérèse-De Blainville (Liberal) 5.41%
  9. Jonquière (NDP) 5.90%
  10. Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (Liberal) 6.95%
  11. Drummond (NDP) 7.64%
  12. Saint-Jean (Liberal) 8.35%
  13. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne (Liberal) 8.36%
  14. Laurier—Sainte-Marie (NDP) 9.56%
  15. Québec (Liberal) 10.05%
  16. La Prairie (Liberal) 10.22%
  17. Chicoutimi—Le Fjord (Liberal)3 10.57%
  18. Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup (Cons) 12.87%
  19. Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix (Cons) 14.37%
  20. Richmond—Arthabaska (Cons) 14.39%
  21. Châteauguay—Lacolle (Liberal) 14.74%
  22. Trois-Rivières (NDP) 14.83%
  23. Lac-Saint-Jean (Cons)5 14.90%
Green
  1. Victoria (NDP) 9.36%
  2. Nanaimo—Ladysmith (NDP)1 13.44%
Notes
  1. ^ The Green Party won this seat in a by-election on May 9, 2019.
  2. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election of February 25, 2019.
  3. ^ The Conservative Party won this seat in a by-election on June 18, 2018.
  4. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on December 11, 2017.
  5. ^ The Liberal Party won this seat in a by-election on October 23, 2017.

Opinion polls[edit]

Evolution of voting intentions during the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. – Source code for plot generation is available here.[149]

Candidates[edit]

Election spending[edit]

Before the campaign, there are no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.[150]

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates[edit]

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.[151]

Registered third parties[edit]

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more.[152] There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.[153]

Elections Canada climate change advertising warning[edit]

On August 19, 2019, Environmental Defence Canada's Tim Gray told media that during a summer 2019 Elections Canada training session, some environmental charities were warned that any third party that promotes information about carbon dioxide as a pollutant or climate change as an emergency during the election period could be deemed to be engaging in partisan activity.[154][155] Gray said that this would mean that registered charities with a charitable tax status would be required to register as a third party for the election if they engaged in any kind of campaign deemed partisan that cost at least $500, which would include advertising and surveys.[155] He said this "onerous requirement...could jeopardize a group's charitable tax status."[155] Only one of the six party leaders—Maxime Bernier—who does not accept the conclusions of the current UNCCR reports saying human caused climate change is an urgent threat to the globe. Bernier believes that climate change is a "natural cycle of the Earth and not an emergency."[155] A spokesperson for Elections Canada confirmed that "such a recommendation would be something we would give." In this electoral campaign therefore, "any third party that discusses the dangers of climate change and carbon dioxide could be considered to be indirectly advocating against Bernier and the People's Party. Furthermore, even activities that do not mention a candidate or party by name, could be considered to be partisan.[155] The following day, Elections Canada released a public statement to clarify that the prohibition applied only to advertising, not speech generally.[156]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Erin Weir designated himself as a member of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation following his expulsion from the NDP caucus. The CCF is not a registered party and Weir's designation exists only in a parliamentary, not electoral, sense. See: Co-operative Commonwealth Federation#2018
  2. ^ The House of Commons allows members to choose their own affiliation; Weir chose to revive the CCF name when he was ejected from the NDP caucus.

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