2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas

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United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010

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  John Boozman, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg Blanche Lincoln, 2007.jpg
Nominee John Boozman Blanche Lincoln
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 451,617 288,156
Percentage 57.9% 37.0%

Arkansas Senate Election Results by County, 2010.svg
County results
Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Lincoln:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Senator before election

Blanche Lincoln
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

John Boozman
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, but was defeated by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican in 138 years to win this seat.

Democratic primary[edit]

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[1]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[2] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[3]

Candidates[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
D.C.
Morrison
Other Undecided
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 31% 25%
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,167 ± 3% 38% 31% 10% 20%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 35% 7% 15%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 600 ± 5% 46% 37% 6% 11%
Research 2000 Nov. 30 – December 2, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% 26% 32%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 146,579 44.5%
Democratic Bill Halter 140,081 42.5%
Democratic D.C. Morrison 42,695 13.0%
Total votes 329,355 100.0%

Runoff[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
Undecided
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%
Research 2000 June 2–4, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 49% 6%

Results[edit]

Lincoln counties in blue, Halter counties in green.
Democratic primary runoff results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 134,758 52.0%
Democratic Bill Halter 124,405 48.0%
Total votes 259,163 100.0%

Republican primary[edit]

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates[edit]

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[15]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Randy
Alexander
Gilbert
Baker
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Kim
Hendren
Jim
Holt
Fred
Ramey
Conrad
Reynolds
Other Undecided
Talk Business April 13, 2010 1,357 ± 3% 3% 14% 46% 5% 3% 8% 1% 3% 17%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 ? ± 4% 12% 46% 6% 19% 4% 13%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[16]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman 75,010 52.7%
Republican Jim Holt 24,826 17.5%
Republican Gilbert Baker 16,540 11.6%
Republican Conrad Reynolds 7,128 5.0%
Republican Curtis Coleman 6,928 4.9%
Republican Kim Hendren 5,551 3.9%
Republican Randy Alexander 4,389 3.1%
Republican Fred Ramey 1,888 1.3%
Total votes 142,260 100.0%

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[20] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Libertarian Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman of supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.[21] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[22]

Debates[edit]

Lincoln and Boozman agreed to two debates.

Predictions[edit]

Senate Ratings Table 2010 AR.svg

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Leans R[24] October 9, 2010
Rothenberg R favored[25] October 8, 2010
Swing State Project Safe R[citation needed]
RealClearPolitics Safe R[26]
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R[27] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Leans R[28] October 9, 2010

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (Party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Blanche Lincoln (D) $9,508,007 $8,431,989 $1,886,132 $0
John Boozman (R) $1,452,241 $968,318 $483,923 $11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 33% 56% 11%
Rasmussen Reports February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 54% 4% 7%
Rasmussen Reports March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 48% 6% 7%
Research 2000 March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 42% 49% 9%
Rasmussen Reports March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 57% 9% 5%
Research 2000 April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 52%
Research 2000 May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% 54%
Rasmussen Reports[permanent dead link] May 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 28% 66% 2% 4%
Research 2000 May 24–26, 2010 600 ± 4% 38% 58% 4%
Rasmussen Reports June 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 61% 4% 3%
Magellan Strategies July 12, 2010 879 ± 3.3% 29% 60% 4% 6%
Talk Business July 17, 2010 793 ± 3.7% 32% 57% 5% 6%
Reuters/Ipsos July 16–18, 2010 600 ± 4% 35% 54% 1% 10%
Rasmussen Reports July 20, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 60% 2% 3%
Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 27% 65% 4% 3%
Mason-Dixon September 12–14, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 51% 4% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos September 17–19, 2010 600 ± 4% 39% 53% 1% 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 55% 3% 5%
Talk Business October 14, 2010 1,953 ± 2.2% 36% 49% 8% 7%
Mason-Dixon October 15–19, 2010 625 ± 4% 34% 55% 6% 5%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 15–19, 2010 1,505 ± 2.5% 41% 55%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 55% 5% 4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–22, 2009 600 ± 4% 48% 37% 16%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 42% 18%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 44% 37% 19%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 5% 8%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 41% 39% 2% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 47% 6% 7%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 42% 41%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 51% 3% 7%
Public Policy Polling (report) January 29–31, 2010 810 ± 3.4% 35% 50% 15%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 6% 8%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 41% 49% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 51% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 53% 12% 4%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 39% 45%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 47% 28% 25%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 44% 5% 10%
Zogby (report) November 16–17, 2009 501 ± 4.5% 45% 29% 2% 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 39% 46% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 46% 30%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 47% 4% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 7% 12%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 43% 48% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 5% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 30% 51% 11% 8%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 40% 50%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 40% 46%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) August 21–24, 2009 784 ± 3.5% 40% 41% 19%
Research 2000 (report) September 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4% 45% 37% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 28, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 1, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 7% 9%
Research 2000 (report) November 30 – December 2, 2009 ± 4% 44% 39%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 4% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 50% 7% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 41% 43% 7% 10%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 47% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 48% 7% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 52% 8% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 46%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 45% 6% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 51% 7% 7%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 54% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% 44%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
John
Boozman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 52% 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 40% 48% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 48% 8% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 56% 7% 7%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 42% 47%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 41% 50%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 5% 13%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 46% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 36% 44% 7% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 48% 10% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 44%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 42% 7% 15%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 44% 45% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 42% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 33% 45% 15% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 45%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 42%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 35% 38% 9% 18%
Research 2000 (report) March 22–24, 2010 600 ± 4% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 40% 10% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 43% 11% 9%
Research 2000 (report) April 26–28, 2010 600 ± 5% 43% 41%
Poll Source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Halter (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 1, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 43% 9% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 26, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 49% 12% 8%
Research 2000 (report) May 10–12, 2010 ± 4% 42% 43%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010[30]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican John Boozman 451,617 57.90% +13.83%
Democratic Blanche Lincoln (incumbent) 288,156 36.95% -18.95%
Libertarian Trevor Drown 25,234 3.24% +3.24%
Green John Gray 14,430 1.85% +1.85%
Majority 163,461 20.95%
Total votes 779,437 100.00%
Turnout
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Election Dates and Deadlines". Secretary of State of Arkansas. Archived from the original on March 5, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  2. ^ Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  3. ^ DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Archived October 23, 2012, at the Wayback Machine Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  4. ^ "CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  5. ^ "Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln". KATV. March 15, 2009. Archived from the original on July 6, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  6. ^ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. June 18, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  7. ^ "Arkansas Democratic Runoff Results". Politico. June 8, 2010. Retrieved June 8, 2010.
  8. ^ Stewart, Martina (September 1, 2009). "Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid". CNN. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  9. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (January 29, 2010). "Boozman running against Lincoln". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  10. ^ Barr, Andy (June 15, 2009). "Tea party leader to run for Senate". The Politico. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  11. ^ "Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate". KFSM-TV. April 20, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  12. ^ Lyon, John (January 14, 2010). "Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign". Arkansas News. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  13. ^ "Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate". KATV. June 23, 2009. Retrieved January 30, 2010.[dead link]
  14. ^ "'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds". WXVT. January 25, 2010. Retrieved January 30, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  15. ^ Moritz, Rob (December 8, 2009). "Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved January 30, 2010.
  16. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  17. ^ "The Courier, Russellville, Ark". Couriernews.com. July 27, 2009. Archived from the original on July 8, 2011. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  18. ^ "Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas". Trevordrown.ning.com. January 31, 2010. Archived from the original on April 18, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  19. ^ "John Gray for U.S. Senate". John Gray for U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on May 7, 2010. Retrieved June 7, 2010.
  20. ^ www.realclearpolitics.com
  21. ^ Demillo, Andrew (August 11, 2010). "Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security". BusinessWeek. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  22. ^ Zwick, Jesse (August 31, 2010). "The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas". The Washington Independent. Archived from the original on August 26, 2014. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  23. ^ [1] Archived August 24, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
  24. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  25. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  26. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  27. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  28. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 9, 2010.
  29. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.[permanent dead link]
  30. ^ "Arkansas Secretary of State". Votenaturally.org. November 29, 2010. Retrieved August 23, 2014.

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign sites