2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

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2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

← 2011 November 3, 2015 2019 →
  Matt Bevin by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg JackConway.jpg
Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly
Popular vote 511,374 426,620
Percentage 52.5% 43.8%

Kentucky gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election results, 2015.svg
County results
Bevin:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Conway:      40–50%      50–60%

Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Matt Bevin
Republican

The 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear was not eligible to run for a third term due to term limits.[2] Primary elections were held on May 19, 2015.[3] Despite trailing in most pre-election polls,[4] Republican nominee Matt Bevin defeated Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 52.5%-43.8% in the general election.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Running mate: Johnathan Masters[7]
  • Former running mate: Cherokee Schill[6]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jack Conway/Sannie Overly
Statewide elected officials
Individuals
Members of the Kentucky legislature
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway
Geoff
Young
Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 707 ± 3.5% 68% 13% 19%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 640 ± 3.9% 61% 12% 27%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 255 ± 6.14% 59% 13% 28%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[63]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jack Conway 140,627 78.8%
Democratic Geoff Young 37,887 21.2%
Total votes 178,514 100.0%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

  • Robert Lee Rosier, U.S. Army veteran[75]
  • Running mate: John Yuen, candidate for the State Senate in 2012[75]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

James Comer/Chris McDaniel
Individuals
Organizations
  • Associated General Contractors[98]
Hal Heiner/K.C. Crosbie
Individuals
Organizations
  • Kentucky Pastors Action Coalition [99]
Matt Bevin/Jenean Hampton
Individuals
  • Hugh Hewitt, author and talk radio personality [100]
  • Sally Oh, co-founder of the Lexington Tea Party [101]
Organizations
  • Cincinnati Enquirer [102]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Cathy
Bailey
Matt
Bevin
James
Comer
Hal
Heiner
Will T.
Scott
Undecided
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 517 ± 4.4% 27% 26% 25% 8% 14%
Public Policy Polling May 6–7, 2015 501 ± 4.4% 25% 28% 27% 20%
Triumph Campaigns March 26, 2015 601 ± 4% 12% 19% 33% 3% 29%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 520 ± 4.4% 20% 20% 28% 8% 25%
Harper Polling January 28–31, 2015 261 ± 6.07% 18% 25% 19% 9% 30%
Remington Research January 27–28, 2015 1,000 ± ? 19% 22% 18% 5% 26%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 383 ± ? 11% 25% 20% 18% 26%
22% 28% 50%
Public Opinion Strategies February 26–27, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 42% 14% 13%

Results[edit]

On May 19, 2015, Matt Bevin won the Republican primary, defeating second-place finisher James Comer by 83 votes.[103][104]

Republican primary results[105]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin 70,480 32.91%
Republican James Comer 70,397 32.89%
Republican Hal Heiner 57,951 27.10%
Republican Will T. Scott 15,365 7.20%
Total votes 214,187 100.00%

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Running mate: Heather Curtis, COO of Fark.com and wife of Drew Curtis[106]
  • Running mate: Elisabeth Anderson, retired legal secretary

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[109] Tossup October 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[110] Tilt D October 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[111] Lean D October 29, 2015

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jack
Conway (D)
Matt
Bevin (R)
Drew
Curtis (I)
Undecided
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2015 618 ± 3.9% 44% 44% 6% 6%
43% 46% 6% 7%
Survey USA October 23–26, 2015 798 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 6% 10%
WKU Social Science Research Center October 19–25, 2015 770 ± 3.5% 45% 40% 7% 8%
Mason-Dixon October 6–8, 2015 625 ± 4% 43% 41% 6% 10%
Survey USA September 22–27, 2015 701 ± 3.8% 42% 37% 7% 15%
Survey USA July 22–28, 2015 685 ± 3.8% 43% 38% 8% 11%
45% 42% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 18–21, 2015 1,108 ± 2.9% 35% 38% 6% 21%
38% 40% 22%
Survey USA May 5–10, 2015 1,677 ± 2.4% 48% 37% 16%
Survey USA March 3–8, 2015 1,917 ± 2.3% 42% 36% 22%
Harper Polling January 28–29, 2015 640 ± 3.87% 45% 41% 14%
Gravis Marketing January 5–6, 2015 608 ± 4% 44% 36% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 7–10, 2014 991 ± 3.1% 39% 36% 25%

Results[edit]

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2015[112][113][114]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Matt Bevin 511,374 52.52% +17.23%
Democratic Jack Conway 426,620 43.82% -11.90%
Independent Drew Curtis 35,597 3.66% N/A
n/a Write-ins 101 0.00% N/A
Total votes 973,692 100.0% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

References[edit]

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  2. ^ https://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/kentucky-obamacare-096101
  3. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/us/james-comer-concedes-to-matt-bevin-in-kentucky-republican-governor-primary.html
  4. ^ https://www.nbcnews.com/card/kentucky-republican-governor-matt-bevin-trails-reelection-poll-n949366
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External links[edit]