2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search
2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
  DougDucey (cropped).jpg David Garcia by Gage Skidmore 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341
Percentage 56.0% 41.8%

Arizona Governor Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results
Garcia:      50–60%      60–70%
Ducey:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Doug Ducey
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey successfully won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot.

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Doug Ducey

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey
Ken
Bennett
Undecided
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 44% 22% 35%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Ducey—70–80%
  Ducey—60–70%
  Ducey—50–60%
Republican primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 463,672 70.7
Republican Ken Bennett 191,775 29.3
Republican Robert Weber (write-in) 91 0.0
Total votes 655,538 99.98

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Steve Farley, state senator[33]
  • Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
  • Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

David Garcia
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Steve
Farley
Kelly
Fryer
David
Garcia
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 589 ± 4.0% 25% 7% 40% 28%
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 11% 6% 33% 49%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 13% 8% 30% 48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) May 21–23, 2018 400 ± 5.0% 11% 11% 32% 46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 446 22% 43% 36%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Garcia—60–70%
  Garcia—50–60%
  Garcia—40–50%
  Garcia—<40%
  Farley—40–50%
Democratic primary results[30]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic David Garcia 255,555 50.6
Democratic Steve Farley 163,072 32.3
Democratic Kelly Fryer 86,810 17.2
Democratic Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) 44 0.0
Total votes 505,481 100.0

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Disqualified[edit]

  • Jeff Funicello, activist[51]
  • Barry Hess (write-in)[5]
  • Kevin McCormick,[5] candidate for president in 2016[52][53]

Endorsements[edit]

Kevin McCormick
Individuals

Green primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Green primary results[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angel Torres (write-in) 357 76.3
Green Noah Dyer (write-in) 111 23.7
Total votes 468 100.0

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Disqualified[edit]

  • Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[57][58]
  • Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[59]

Declined[edit]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[61] Likely R October 5, 2018
The Washington Post[62] Likely R October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[63] Likely R October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Likely R October 12, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] Likely R October 11, 2018
Real Clear Politics[66] Likely R October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[67] Likely R October 5, 2018
Fox News[68][a] Likely R October 12, 2018
Politico[69] Likely R October 12, 2018
Governing[70] Lean R October 2, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
David
Garcia (D)
Angel
Torres (G)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 53% 39%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 55% 37%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 55% 40% 5%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 2% 5%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 56% 37%
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 53% 40% 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 36%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 54% 46%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 57% 35%
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% 2% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% 3% 7%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 52% 45% 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 52% 43% 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 55% 35% 4% 7%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 54% 40% 5% <1% 2%
55% 42% 1% 1%
793 RV ± 4.4% 54% 38% 5% <1% 3%
55% 41% 1% 3%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 52% 41% 1% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 57% 37% 2% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 57% 39% 1% 3%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 47% 40% 11%
OH Predictive Insights October 3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 54% 37% 2% 7%
Data Orbital October 1–3, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 52% 34% 2% 2% 9%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 55% 37% 1% 7%
806 RV ± 3.5% 54% 35% 2% 9%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 57% 43%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 50% 38% 2% 0% 10%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV 45% 40% 15%
610 RV 41% 37% 19%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 42% 38% 6% 14%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 49% 39% 6% <1% 6%
51% 43% <1% 5%
763 RV ± 4.2% 48% 37% 7% <1% 7%
51% 42% 1% 6%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 49% 46% 0% 2%
854 RV ± 4.1% 48% 45% 1% 4%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 4% 7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 49% 48% 0% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1% 8%
801 RV ± 3.5% 49% 39% 1% 10%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 48% 44% 9%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 49% 41% 2%[71] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) August 30–31, 2018 554 ± 4.2% 44% 43% 13%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) January 5–7, 2018 735 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) June 7–8, 2017 1,020 ± 3.1% 42% 44% 14%

Results[edit]

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018[72]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Doug Ducey (incumbent) 1,330,863 56.00% +2.56%
Democratic David Garcia 994,341 41.84% +0.22%
Green Angel Torres 50,962 2.14% N/A
None Patrick Masoya (write-in) 177 0.01% N/A
None Christian Komor (write-in) 66 0.00% N/A
Green Cary D. Dolego (write-in) 13 0.00% N/A
Republican Takeover Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in) 12 0.00% N/A
Humanitarian James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in) 7 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,376,441 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Voter Demographics[edit]

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Garcia Ducey No
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men 40 58 2 47
Women 43 55 2 53
Age
18-24 years old N/A N/A N/A 5
25-29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30-39 years old N/A N/A N/A 17
40-49 years old N/A N/A N/A 16
50-64 years old 37 61 2 29
65 and older 40 59 1 29
Race
White 37 62 1 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 56 44 N/A 19
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 1
Race and Gender
White men 34 64 2 34
White women 39 60 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men N/A N/A N/A 9
Latina women N/A N/A N/A 10
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 32 67 1 25
Some college education 40 58 2 28
Associate Degree 38 59 3 10
Bachelor's Degree 46 51 3 23
Advanced degree 59 40 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 48 49 3 27
White no college degree 30 69 1 38
Non-white college graduates N/A N/A N/A 9
Non-white no college degree N/A N/A N/A 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 50 49 1 15
White women without college degrees 33 66 1 26
White men with college degrees 46 49 5 12
White men without college degrees 28 72 N/A 21
Non-whites 58 40 2 25
Military service
Veteran 33 65 2 14
Non-veteran 45 54 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 36 62 2 15
$30,000-$49,999 54 45 1 19
$50,000-$99,999 46 52 2 33
$100,000-$199,999 30 67 3 24
Over $200,000 N/A N/A N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 85 14 1 31
Republicans 5 95 N/A 38
Independents 45 52 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 77 20 3 14
Democratic women 91 9 N/A 17
Republican men 5 95 N/A 15
Republican women 4 96 N/A 23
Independent men 42 56 2 18
Independent women 48 47 5 13
Ideology
Liberals 84 16 N/A 22
Moderates 57 39 4 38
Conservatives 4 95 1 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes N/A N/A N/A 15
No 41 57 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 64 33 3 42
Immigration 8 91 1 31
Economy 38 60 2 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 52 46 2 43
Suburban 34 64 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 5
Source: CNN[73]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved 22 May 2018.
  2. ^ "Ducey 2018". www.ducey2018.com.
  3. ^ "Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett to challenge Gov. Ducey in primary".
  4. ^ "Ducey draws primary challenge from Bennett".
  5. ^ a b c d e f "Arizona Election Information". apps.azsos.gov.
  6. ^ "Arizona REALTORS® Announces 2018 Primary Election Endorsements". blog.aaronline.com.
  7. ^ "Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry announces 2018 statewide office endorsements". azchamber.com. June 27, 2018.
  8. ^ "ARIZONA FRATERNAL ORDER OF POLICE ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 21, 2018.
  9. ^ "ARIZONA POLICE ASSOCIATION ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 20, 2018.
  10. ^ "Arizona State Troopers Association Endorses Doug Ducey - Doug Ducey for Governor". Doug Ducey for Governor. 2018-09-25. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  11. ^ "THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC ENDORSES DOUG DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. August 1, 2018.
  12. ^ "Star Opinion: Doug Ducey for Arizona governor". Arizona Daily Star. October 15, 2018.
  13. ^ "Governor's race". Casa Grande Dispatch. July 18, 2018.
  14. ^ "Our View: Let Ducey keep on building the Arizona economy in a second term". Today's News-Herald. October 20, 2018.
  15. ^ "Editorial: Courier offers picks in partisan races, ballot questions". The Daily Courier. October 20, 2018.
  16. ^ "Chandler Chamber announces picks for upcoming election". Wrangler News. June 22, 2018.
  17. ^ "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ANNOUNCES ENDORSEMENTS FOR 2018 STATE ELECTIONS". Gilbert Chamber of Commerce.
  18. ^ "GREATER PHOENIX CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". phoenixchamber.com. June 28, 2018.
  19. ^ Skabelund, Adrian. "Garcia visits Flagstaff as chamber chooses Ducey for governor". Arizona Daily Sun. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  20. ^ "Mesa Chamber Announces 2018 Candidate Endorsements". mesachamber.org. June 27, 2018.
  21. ^ "TUCSON METRO CHAMBER ENDORSES GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 5, 2018.
  22. ^ "Border Patrol Unions Back Arizona Gov. Ducey for Re-Election". usnews.com. Associated Press. September 10, 2018.
  23. ^ "Small Business PAC Endorses Governor Ducey for Re-election". NFIB. 2018-09-26. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  24. ^ "Arizona Firefighters Endorse Doug Ducey". Doug Ducey for Governor. 2018-10-16. Retrieved 2018-11-01.
  25. ^ a b c "ARIZONA SHERIFFS ENDORSE GOVERNOR DUCEY". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. October 4, 2018.
  26. ^ a b c "DOUG DUCEY EARNS BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FROM BORDER MAYORS". Doug Ducey for Governor of Arizona. September 18, 2018.
  27. ^ Maria Polletta (September 26, 2018). "Cindy McCain endorses Doug Ducey in governor's race". The Arizona Republic.
  28. ^ Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @DougDucey on his primary victory tonight in Arizona. We need strong governors like Doug across this nation to help enact the @RealDonaldTrump agenda that has our economy BOOMING! We're with you all the way!". Twitter.
  29. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Governor Doug Ducey of Arizona is doing a great job. It would be really nice to show your support tomorrow by voting for him in Tuesdays Primary. Doug is strong on Crime, the Border, and our Second Amendment. Loves our Military & our Vets. He has my full and complete Endorsement". Twitter.
  30. ^ a b "Statewide canvass" (PDF). azsos.gov.
  31. ^ Resnik, Brahm (April 7, 2017). "Democrat David Garcia to announce run for Arizona governor". 12 News. Retrieved April 9, 2017.
  32. ^ "Democrat David Garcia challenging Doug Ducey for Arizona governor".
  33. ^ Nunez, Steve. "UPDATE: Democrat Kelly Fryer announces run for AZ governor. Democrat Steve Farley announces run for AZ governor".
  34. ^ "Tucson Democrat Kelly Fryer enters race for governor".
  35. ^ "Valdez: Who do politicians love? Here's why you need to see the donor list". Retrieved 22 May 2018.
  36. ^ Cohen, Zach C. (December 8, 2016). "FWIW, @RepSinema (D-AZ) told me yesterday, "I am not running for governor."". Twitter. Retrieved December 8, 2016.
  37. ^ Gardiner, Dustin (November 1, 2016). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton eyeing run for statewide office". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved November 4, 2016.
  38. ^ Boehm, Jessica (October 5, 2017). "Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  39. ^ "AFGE | Vote 2018". www.afge.org.
  40. ^ "AZBTC endorses candidates running for statewide office - Arizona Building Trades". Arizona Building Trades. May 10, 2018.
  41. ^ Ball, Amy; Gould, Amber; Thomas, Joe (March 7, 2018). "AEA - AEA Endorses David Garcia for Governor of Arizona". www.arizonaea.org.
  42. ^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political.
  43. ^ "Democracy for America Endorses David Garcia for Governor and January Contreras for Attorney General".
  44. ^ "Current Candidates - LatinoVictory.us". LatinoVictory.us.
  45. ^ "PFAW Announces Endorsements of History-Making Candidates for Governor".
  46. ^ "Endorsement". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org.
  47. ^ "Join the Bold Progressive Movement!". Progressive Change Campaign Committee (BoldProgressives.org).
  48. ^ "Voter guide" (PDF). www.sierraclub.org. 2018.
  49. ^ Sotlz, Jon (May 3, 2018). "VoteVets PAC Endorses David Garcia for Governor". VoteVets.org.
  50. ^ "Our 2018 Endorsements - Working Families". Working Families. March 13, 2018.
  51. ^ "2018 Candidates - Libertarian Party".
  52. ^ "McCormick For Governor Announcement". September 14, 2017. Retrieved October 25, 2017.
  53. ^ Martinez, Remso W. (September 13, 2017). "Breaking: Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate To Run For Arizona Governor". Halsey News. Retrieved December 11, 2017.
  54. ^ "Weld Endorses McCormick". Facebook. Facebook.
  55. ^ a b "Candidate Search".
  56. ^ "Torres for Arizona Governor video (Arizona Primary Election victory): September 8, 2018". www.torresforarizona.com. Angel Torres/Green Party.
  57. ^ "Noah Dyer announces his bid for Arizona governor". azcentral.
  58. ^ Wingett Sanchez, Yvonne (July 26, 2017). "Fed up with Democrats, Arizona governor candidate Noah Dyer changes to independent". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  59. ^ Cite error: The named reference komorindependent was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  60. ^ "Jeffries Will Not Run For Governor, Will Proceed With Lawsuit". Arizona Daily Independent. January 22, 2018. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
  61. ^ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2018-08-24.
  62. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  63. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  64. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2018-08-24.
  65. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2018-08-24.
  66. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2018 Election Maps - 2018 Governor Races". www.realclearpolitics.com. August 9, 2018.
  67. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. August 13, 2018.
  68. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
  69. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  70. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  71. ^ Barry Hess (L) with 2%
  72. ^ "Statewide canvass" (PDF). azsos.gov.
  73. ^ "Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved March 29, 2019.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites