Opinion polling for the 2011 Canadian federal election, by constituency

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Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2011 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in October 2008, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 20 polls in 17 ridings across 2 provinces was conducted.

Constituency polls[edit]

British Columbia[edit]

Saanich—Gulf Islands[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Oracle April 19, 2011 HTML 38 9 9 45 0 ±4.9 pp 389 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 43 39 6 10 1 ±0.0 pp 64,639 Election

Quebec[edit]

Beauport—Limoilou[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 27 5 36 30 2 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 37 14 12 33 3 1 ±0.0 pp 49,794 Election

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 31 9 35 22 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 41 14 13 29 2 0 ±0.0 pp 50,791 Election

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 18 9 27 43 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
Segma Research April 21, 2011 HTML 29 11 23 35 3 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 35 13 8 41 2 0 ±0.0 pp 48,533 Election

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma Research April 13, 2011 HTML 14 19 11 48 6 0 ±4.9 pp 435 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 23 27 7 40 3 0 ±0.0 pp 36,940 Election

Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma Research April 13, 2011 HTML 15 24 5 49 5 0 ±4.9 pp 435 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 18 36 5 38 4 1 ±0.0 pp 32,268 Election

Hull—Aylmer[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma Research April 23, 2011 HTML 11 29 42 13 2 0 ±4.4 pp 500 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 15 37 20 22 5 0 ±0.0 pp 52,707 Election

Jonquière—Alma[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 34 4 32 25 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
Segma Research April 21, 2011 HTML 36 5 30 26 3 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 53 5 5 38 0 0 ±0.0 pp 51,395 Election

Lévis—Bellechasse[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma Research April 16, 2011 HTML 38 5 23 26 6 0 ±5.7 pp 300 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 46 15 11 25 3 0 ±0.0 pp 54,849 Election

Lotbinière—Chutes-de-la-Chaudière[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Segma Research April 16, 2011 HTML 35 12 23 29 1 0 ±5.7 pp 300 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 47 13 13 25 2 0 ±0.0 pp 52,732 Election

Louis-Hébert[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 22 13 32 30 3 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 28 24 9 36 2 0 ±0.0 pp 58,529 Election

Louis-Saint-Laurent[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 37 8 37 17 1 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 47 13 10 27 3 0 ±0.0 pp 50,966 Election

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 0 8 31 28 3 29 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 0 16 13 32 3 36 ±0.0 pp 46,095 Election

Québec[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 15 10 34 34 6 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 26 18 12 42 3 0 ±0.0 pp 51,067 Election

Richmond—Arthabaska[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
Cara Telecom April 21, 2011 HTML 21 6 20 47 6 0 ±4.8 pp 420 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 29 13 9 46 3 1 ±0.0 pp 52,692 Election

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 47 4 27 20 2 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
Segma Research April 21, 2011 HTML 54 5 11 28 2 0 ±4.6 pp 432 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 44 10 5 40 2 0 ±0.0 pp 37,307 Election

Trois-Rivières[edit]

Polling Firm Last Date
of Polling
Link Cons. Liberal NDP BQ Green Other Margin
of Error[1]
Sample
Size[2]
Polling Method[3]
CROP April 27, 2011 HTML 17 8 42 28 5 0 ±4.9 pp 400 IVR
2008 Election October 14, 2008 HTML 24 18 9 45 3 0 ±0.0 pp 39,579 Election

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

Notes

1 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.[2]
2 Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists"". Marketing Research and Intelligence Association. September 16, 2011. Retrieved October 6, 2012.
  2. ^ American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research, retrieved October 17, 2012