Zero-risk bias

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Zero-risk bias is a tendency to prefer the complete elimination of a risk even when alternative options produce a greater reduction in risk (overall).[1] It often manifests in cases where decision makers address problems concerning health, safety, and the environment.[2] Its effect on decision making has been observed in surveys presenting hypothetical scenarios and certain real-world policies (e.g. war against terrorism as opposed to reducing the risk of traffic accidents or gun violence) have been interpreted as being influenced by it. Another example involves a decision to reduce risk in one manager's area at the expense of increased risk for the larger organization.[3]

Explanation[edit]

Zero-risk bias is based on the way people feel better if a risk is eliminated instead of being merely mitigated.[2] Scientists identified a zero-risk bias in responses to a questionnaire about a hypothetical cleanup scenario involving two hazardous sites X and Y, with X causing 8 cases of cancer annually and Y causing 4 cases annually. The respondents ranked three cleanup approaches: two options each reduced the total number of cancer cases by 6, while the third reduced the number by 5 and completely eliminated the cases at site Y. While the latter option featured the worst reduction overall, 42% of the respondents ranked it better than at least one of the other options. This conclusion resembled one from an earlier economics study that found people were willing to pay high costs to completely eliminate a risk.[4][5] It has a normative justification since once risk is completely eliminated, people would have less to worry about and such removal of worry also has utility.[6] It is also driven by our preference for winning much more than losing as well as the old instead of the new way, all of which cloud the way the world is viewed.[7]

Multiple real-world policies have been said to be affected by this bias. In American federal policy, the Delaney clause outlawing cancer-causing additives from foods (regardless of actual risk) and the desire for perfect cleanup of Superfund sites have been alleged to be overly focused on complete elimination. Furthermore, the effort needed to implement zero-risk laws grew as technological advances enabled the detection of smaller quantities of hazardous substances. Limited resources were increasingly being devoted to low-risk issues.[8]

Critics of the zero-risk bias model cite that it has the tendency to neglect overall risk reduction. For instance, when eliminating two side effects, it holds that the complete eradication of just one side-effect is preferable to lowering the overall risk.[9]

Causes[edit]

Other biases might underlie the zero-risk bias. One is a tendency to think in terms of proportions rather than differences. A greater reduction in proportion of deaths is valued higher than a greater reduction in actual deaths. The zero-risk bias could then be seen as the extreme end of a broad bias about quantities as applied to risk. Framing effects can enhance the bias, for example, by emphasizing a large proportion in a small set or can attempt to mitigate the bias by emphasizing total quantities.[10]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Crosby, Daniel (2016-06-27). The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the secret to investing success. Harriman House Limited. ISBN 9780857195258.
  2. ^ a b Virine, Lev; Trumper, Michael (2016). ProjectThink: Why Good Managers Make Poor Project Choices. Oxon: Routledge. pp. 102, 175. ISBN 9781409454984.
  3. ^ Wells, Andrew Roman; Chiang, Kathy (2017). Monetizing Your Data: A Guide to Turning Data into Profit-Driving Strategies and Solutions. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. p. 143. ISBN 9781119356240.
  4. ^ Baron, Jonathan; Gowda, Rajeev; Kunreuther, Howard (1993). "Attitudes toward managing hazardous waste: What should be cleaned up and who should pay for it?". Risk Analysis. 13 (2): 183–192. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01068.x.
  5. ^ Viscusi, W. K.; Magat, W. A.; Huber, J. (1987). "An investigation of the rationality of consumer valuation of multiple health risks". Rand Journal of Economics. 18 (4): 465–479. doi:10.2307/2555636. JSTOR 2555636.
  6. ^ Baron, Jonathan (2003). Thinking and Deciding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. p. 506. ISBN 978-0521659727.
  7. ^ Crosby, Daniel (2016-06-27). The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the secret to investing success. Hampshire, UK: Harriman House Limited. ISBN 9780857195258.
  8. ^ Kunreuther, Howard (1991). "Managing hazardous waste: past, present and future" (PDF). Risk Analysis. 11: 19–26. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00561.x.
  9. ^ Raue, Martina; Streicher, Bernhard; Lermer, Eva (2019). Perceived Safety: A Multidisciplinary Perspective. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. p. 65. ISBN 9783030114541.
  10. ^ Baron, Jonathan (2003). "Value analysis of political behavior - self-interested : moralistic :: altruistic : moral". University of Pennsylvania Law Review. 151 (3): 1135–1167. doi:10.2307/3312887. JSTOR 3312887.